Scenario Planning:
Navigating uncertain futures

A powerful tool for navigating uncertainty and making strategic decisions in a complex world.

Do you know what are possible future scenarios for your industry?
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ABOUT
What is Scenario Planning?

Scenario planning is a structured process for envisioning alternative futures, exploring potential impacts of different events, and developing strategies to adapt to changing circumstances. In today’s complex world, uncertainty isn’t just a challenge – it’s an opportunity. Through systematic consideration of possible scenarios, rather than relying on a single predicted  future, organizations can transform uncertainty from a threat into a strategic advantage.

Think of scenario planning as Waze for your business. Just as Waze shows you alternative routes, alerts you to obstacles ahead, and helps you reach your destination efficiently, scenario planning guides organizations through uncertainty to their strategic goals. And like having Waze’s insights gives you an advantage over drivers using static maps, mastering scenario planning gives your organization a competitive edge in navigating the future.

Leaders who excel in this environment are those with Dynamic capabilities –  who can sense, shape, and adapt to emerging futures. By strengthening Anticipatory leadership capabilities, they move from reactive to proactive decision-making, building organizational capacity for change and creating cultures of innovation.

The History of Scenario Planning
1950s
The origins of Scenario Planning can be traced back to the work of Shell Oil, which used the technique to explore the potential impacts of oil scarcity.
1980s–1990s
The method gained popularity as organizations faced increasing complexity and uncertainty in a rapidly changing world.
Today
Scenario Planning is widely used in various industries, from business and finance to government and non-profit organizations.
scenario planning history
Where Scenario Planning can help

Strategic Planning

Develop strategies for a range of possible futures, reducing risk and increasing resilience

Innovation and R&D

Explore new opportunities and technologies by considering future trends and challenges

Risk Management

Identify and mitigate potential risks and uncertainties, improving preparedness and adaptability

Decision-Making

Make more informed and strategic decisions by considering a wider range of possible outcomes

Understanding trends is crucial, but anticipation goes beyond trend analysis.

Through scenario planning, organizations can identify key trends shaping their industry, understand deeper patterns of change, and spot emerging opportunities early.

Our approach

We design and facilitate scenario planning processes and workshops tailored to your needs:

Full scenario development programs to explore your industry's futures
Strategic stress-testing using pre-developed scenarios
Capability building workshops to embed scenario planning in your organization
Executive sessions for strategic decision-making
Through these engagements, we guide you through a proven process that turns uncertainty into strategic advantage:

Identify Key Drivers

Discover and analyze the most important factors that could shape your future. We help you assess their impact and degree of uncertainty to focus on what truly matters for your organization.

Develop future scenarios

Create plausible, challenging scenarios based on key drivers. This step goes beyond simple forecasting to explore how different factors might interact and evolve over time.

Analyze implications

Thoroughly examine how each scenario could affect your organization. We look at implications for strategy, operations, resources, and market position to understand both challenges and opportunities.

Strategic Planning

Develop robust strategies that can succeed across different scenarios. This ensures your organization remains resilient and adaptable regardless of which future unfolds.

Stay alert & adapt

Establish monitoring systems to track early warning signs and indicators (signposts). We help you build a system to recognize which scenario might emerge and when to adjust your strategy.
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    Examples of Scenario Planning

    •  Future of Workforce: Trends and Scenarios for future of workforce in Romania 2030
    •  Future of Screens: Understanding emerging display technologies and their impact
    •  European EV scenarios for 2030: Four scenarios for the European electric vehicle industry

    •  Life at home Scenarios by IKEA: How IKEA Retail imagines life at home in 2030
    •  Scenarios for the future of automotive supplier industry

    Imagine to Act. The future is our greatest source of imagination.

    Through scenario planning, we don’t just prepare for change – we actively shape it. By imagining challenging yet hopeful futures, we create the momentum for meaningful action today. Let’s envision futures that inspire and drive positive transformation.

    Ready to navigate your organization’s future?

    Schedule a consultation | Get detailed worksheets | Begin your scenario planning journey

    RESOURCES
    Learn More
    1. Here is a great HBR article explaining Scenario Planning applications by using Shell as an example.
    2. And here is a MIT article explaining the difference between Scenario Planning and other planning methods, such as contingency planning.
    3. World Economic Forum: “Strategic Foresight: A Guide to Scenario Planning”
    4. McKinsey Quarterly: “Winning in Uncertain Times Through Scenario Planning”
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